Road to 3 degrees
Posted by NYCA Blogger on December 18, 2009
Rishi blogging from Copenhagen
Based on a ‘preliminary’ assessment done by the Secretariat on the pledges made thus far by both Annex 1 and non Annex 1 countries, we are on the Road to 3 degrees.
The emissions reduction will not be enough to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees- something that Least Developed Countries and Most Vulnerable Countries and small island states have been pressing for. In fact, the concentrations could go up to 550ppm, completely falling short of what is demanded by science.
The report says:
Even if Parties agreed to deliver in accordance with the upper range of their pledge, this will still leave a gap of around 1.9 to 4.2 Gt. Unless this gap is closed emissions will peak later than 2020 and remain on an unsustainable pathway that could lead to concentrations equal or above 550ppm…temperature raise around 3 degrees Celsius.
COP update: The LCA will be reconvening very shortly. A hybrid of ‘friends of the chair’ and drafting group arrangements were decided as the process to take off the brackets from the text. Hopefully by later on this morning, we will have a text ready for the high level.